Comments on: Simon Southerton Promoting Book Again https://www.ourthoughts.ca/2005/07/21/simon-southerton-promoting-book-again/ Thought-provoking commentary on life, politics, religion and social issues. Fri, 08 Dec 2006 21:47:34 +0000 hourly 1 By: George https://www.ourthoughts.ca/2005/07/21/simon-southerton-promoting-book-again/comment-page-3/#comment-18530 Fri, 08 Dec 2006 21:47:34 +0000 http://www.ourthoughts.ca/?p=207#comment-18530 t living in Jerusalem around 600 BC." I would prefer that men who claim to be God's Leaders's to tell the truth or not lie by acting like they speak for God when they don't. Whatever happened about the Prophet claiming scipture was fulfilled when the oil fields where set on fire. Why do we no longer hear about it?]]> Apologist said: “If you want church leaders to be right about everything they say as proof that God is speaking to them, then you are lucky you weren’t living in Jerusalem around 600 BC.”

I would prefer that men who claim to be God’s Leaders’s to tell the truth or not lie by acting like they speak for God when they don’t.

Whatever happened about the Prophet claiming scipture was fulfilled when the oil fields where set on fire. Why do we no longer hear about it?

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By: Kim Siever https://www.ourthoughts.ca/2005/07/21/simon-southerton-promoting-book-again/comment-page-3/#comment-18527 Fri, 08 Dec 2006 20:20:24 +0000 http://www.ourthoughts.ca/?p=207#comment-18527 t speak to me." The best chuckle I've had all day. Thanks, Apologist. :)]]> “If I turn out to be wrong, it must be because God doesn’t speak to me.”

The best chuckle I’ve had all day. Thanks, Apologist. :)

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By: Apologist https://www.ourthoughts.ca/2005/07/21/simon-southerton-promoting-book-again/comment-page-2/#comment-18526 Fri, 08 Dec 2006 19:51:55 +0000 http://www.ourthoughts.ca/?p=207#comment-18526 In fact, the more I think about it, the more the problem really is like a noisy digital communication channel. I wonder if someone has already published a paper on this? I will have to take a look and see what is out there in the literature. If there is nothing, I might take it on myself and submit it for publication… it would be a fun problem.

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By: Apologist https://www.ourthoughts.ca/2005/07/21/simon-southerton-promoting-book-again/comment-page-2/#comment-18523 Fri, 08 Dec 2006 18:41:32 +0000 http://www.ourthoughts.ca/?p=207#comment-18523 I’m not saying church leaders were right in declaring that Mayans, Polynesians, and other Native Americans are really Jewish, I am saying that the Book of Mormon is not proven wrong by the research. The scientific jury is still out on this. Don’t use DNA evidence as incontrovertible proof until it is. Science is a very powerful tool for discovering answers, but the process of discovery is usually very slow with lots of false starts before the exhilaration of a breakthrough. We have to be patient, often for years. Church leaders can say that the Book of Mormon is a history of American people, which we believe it is. That would mean that the Lamanites, even if they weren’t Jewish, still believed in Christ and so on, and that their descendants ought to know about it. You may think that’s not fair because we haven’t proved it, but that doesn’t mean we can’t teach it. Troy was a myth until it was found, and so was the Mycenean civilization. Science can’t give a complete description of migrations to the Americas yet. Wait a few years and we will see. If you want church leaders to be right about everything they say as proof that God is speaking to them, then you are lucky you weren’t living in Jerusalem around 600 BC.

And don’t rag on the PhD- it is precisely Southerton’s scientific expertise that makes all of this legitimate in many people’s eyes. I have seen very little peer level discussion of his work on the Book of Mormon question. I am not a geneticist, but I do have experience working with scientific data and its interpretation, so I thought I would say something about it. You need a geneticist to get the data, but once you have it, it becomes largely a mathematical and statistical problem. How do I analyze this collection of A, T, C, and G sequences, knowing that they can switch places through a mutation? It is mathematically similar to the problem of a noisy digital communication channel with some bit error rate, only the bit error rate is nonuniform along the sequence, and each bit has four possible values instead of two. You also need a good geneticist to determine the mutation rates along the sequence, and that is what is being presently researched as I described above. Once this is done to the satisfaction of the majority of the genetics community, I predict you will see an argument between biologists and anthropologists about their differing chronologies. If I turn out to be wrong, it must be because God doesn’t speak to me.

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By: George https://www.ourthoughts.ca/2005/07/21/simon-southerton-promoting-book-again/comment-page-2/#comment-18430 Wed, 06 Dec 2006 22:15:06 +0000 http://www.ourthoughts.ca/?p=207#comment-18430 And your point is?

So basically your agreeing with Southerton that the natives are not jews and early church leaders did not speak the truth and thus could not have been speaking for God?

Interesting concept for a Phd.

14 million words down to 30.

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By: Apologist https://www.ourthoughts.ca/2005/07/21/simon-southerton-promoting-book-again/comment-page-2/#comment-18370 Tue, 05 Dec 2006 01:49:31 +0000 http://www.ourthoughts.ca/?p=207#comment-18370 This is a follow-up on the previous posting. I noticed that I assumed the importance of variable mutation rates is understood, but since it may not be, I will make it more
clear. mtDNA studies rely on something called haplogroups, which is how populations are organized. Haplogroups correspond to various sequences in the DNA strand that are unique to different populations. Early on in the research, a control region (also called the D-loop) in mitochondrial
DNA was designated as a common reference for purposes of chronological calibration. It was later discovered that this was perhaps not the best choice because it has abnormally high mutation rates compared to other portions of mtDNA. Estimates of the mutation rates in this region have varied
by as much as two orders of magnitude (100 times) (“The
Mutation Rate in the Human mtDNA Control Region”. Sigurdardottir et. al., Am. J. Human Genetics, 66:1599-1609, 2000). Our common progenitor (so-called mitochondrial Eve) was placed in Africa to a time between 150,000 to 200,000 years
ago, and then, given estimates of the mutation rate, haplogroup divergences were dated from this starting point. But if the mutation rate is off, then so is the estimated starting date. Because of this, creationists have seized on the possibility of a time span 100 times shorter to justify the biblical chronology of about 6,000 years between now and the biblical Eve. (Nobody has mentioned it yet, but Mormons also have a problem with this since Eve was supposed to be somewhere in Missouri about 6,000 years ago.)
I don’t want to get side-tracked on the evolutionary implications however, so back to the Book of Mormon question. If the time span is in fluctuation, it also means that the haplogroup that we are looking for in American populations is in fluctuation. More clearly, if the time span is really more
compressed than anthropology suggests, then a mutation that
should have been present in 600 BC according to anthropological calibration would have actually occurred later on. That means Sarah would not have had the mutated sequence, because it really occurred after she left, not before. As mentioned above, the situation is actually quite difficult, because different portions of the mtDNA sequence mutate at different rates, so even if the calibration of the control
region is finally settled, you still have to worry about the
independent mutation rates of haplogroup sequences in other parts of the strand to be sure you have everything straight. Professors, graduate students, and postdocs are getting publications, degrees, and tenure by studying this stuff
right now, so a little patience is in order before we start shredding the Book of Mormon and becoming just as bland as every other Christian faith out there.

It may be that haplogroup X, present in small percentages in North American Indian tribes
(“mtDNA Haplogroup X: An Ancient Link between Europe/Western Asia and North America?”, Brown et. al., Am. J. Human Genetics, 63:1852-1861, 1998 and “Origin and Diffusion of mtDNA Haplogroup X”, Reidla et. al., Am. J. Human Genetics, 73:1178-1190, 2003), is the signature of the Lehi migration. Its arrival is dated
to about 15 – 25 thousand years ago, but as noted above, this is based on an anthropological calibration. The X group is not present in Asia, but is present in Near Eastern and European populations. Research on the details of how the X group arrived and spread in the Americas is ongoing. Before anyone accuses me of mental gymnastics, let me reiterate that everything I have said is well-fixed, except for
the chronological calibration of the control region in mtDNA. It is on this that much of the debate is centered, and geneticists are still not settled on it. Most of them don’t care about the Book of Mormon, so if the debate is ongoing, we have to sit on the sidelines until the academic dust settles and only then apply the results to our little piece of the puzzle. In another ten or twenty
years, it is likely that the answer will converge between one of the two extremes so far (and the 150,000 to 200,000 year calibration is at one of those extremes). If we take the current middle ground, then 15 – 25,000 becomes 1,500 – 2,500, and the Book of Mormon account has good support. I don’t mean to imply that it will have strong evidence in its favor, but neither will Southerton’s categorical statements still apply. It will then be, as it was before, largely a matter of faith.

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By: Apologist https://www.ourthoughts.ca/2005/07/21/simon-southerton-promoting-book-again/comment-page-2/#comment-18368 Tue, 05 Dec 2006 01:41:24 +0000 http://www.ourthoughts.ca/?p=207#comment-18368 Not so fast! I have read through this thread, and I note that
somebody tried to pull academic rank earlier, so I will do the same. I also have a PhD, and it is in a scientific field (physics, Purdue U.), unlike (I suspect) the earlier poster. Everyone seems to be taking the DNA evidence as settled, but as much as biologists know about DNA itself, I doubt
many of them are experts in the statistical methods they use to reach conclusions. The whole question is framed in the wrong way. The Book of Mormon says that a relatively small group of people (less than 50) came to the new world around 600 BC. I think it is clear that there were already
people living here. In fact, the Mulekites mention that Corianton stayed with them for nine months, which means that the Jaredite civilization was collapsing even as Lehi’s family was spreading out in their new home. It also means
that there were people left over after the Jaredite collapse, and that these people did not recognize Corianton as a great leader. In other words, there were plenty of people around, even if they aren’t described in detail. The question then becomes: how large a sample is needed to detect DNA traces from this small group in the midst of a larger population? The relative numbers really matter, and with them, we can set limits on the feasibility of the Book of Mormon’s account of things. But it will be a percentage, not a definite yes or no. The question can even be turned around, where the absence of evidence will give us an estimate of how large the indigenous population would have to be to mask the effects of the small group. Once we hit absurdly large populations, we can say the Book of Mormon is in trouble. (With the
understanding that the numbers will change as DNA science is refined over time.) If we are talking about mitchondrial DNA, the small group is even smaller, since we are only talking about women. You will
note that Southerton is always careful to use the premise of a large Middle Eastern footprint so that he doesn’t have to worry about statistical issues. He argues that Nephites could not have dominated culturally without relatively large
numbers, but I disagree. They would have had a superior technology and culture, with steel working and a written language. They also were arriving on the heels of the collapse of the civilization before them. Further, intermarriage might not be as widespread as the DNA studies assume. If the Nephites tried to “marry within the faith,” the spread of their DNA would not occur as rapidly as it would otherwise. (It would, for example, be
interesting to see how easily DNA studies could predict the number of Jews in Germany prior to the rise of Hitler based on modern population samples.) In the
case of mtDNA, it is not hard to imagine that women were restricted (by stubborn parents) in their marriage choices even more than men, further limiting the spread. All of these factors contribute to a full statistical analysis of the problem. Without this analysis, geneticists can only make broad statements. I could go further and start discussing how DNA sequencing is done, along with possible sources of error such as parallel
mutations and mtDNA hotspots (“Reduced-Median-Network Analysis of Complete Mitochondrial DNA Coding-Region Sequences for the Major African, Asian, and European Haplogroups”, Herrnstadt et. al.,
Am. J. Human Genetics, 70:1152-1171, 2002), but my main point is to be a little more cautious about all of this. In the research papers that I have read (have you read any?), there is
still a lot of work to do to characterize and calibrate mutation rates (which are not uniform along the DNA sequence- there are fast and slow sites!), as well as to
fully sequence the 16,000 nitrogenous base sites present in
mtDNA. There is no such thing as an experimental scientific result without error bars. If it doesn’t have error bars, somebody doesn’t know what they are doing and should call in a qualified statistician. From what I have read about Southerton (his own account on some ex-Mormon site), it looks like he was just burned out and was actually glad to find an excuse to kick himself out of the church. How many other LDS geneticists have done the same because of all this?

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By: George https://www.ourthoughts.ca/2005/07/21/simon-southerton-promoting-book-again/comment-page-2/#comment-17266 Sun, 05 Nov 2006 22:54:58 +0000 http://www.ourthoughts.ca/?p=207#comment-17266 It has been interesting to read this thread. It explains a lot of the strange ideals that have been presented in other threads.

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By: Messenger and Advocate » The Book Of Mormon And DNA https://www.ourthoughts.ca/2005/07/21/simon-southerton-promoting-book-again/comment-page-2/#comment-13874 Thu, 10 Aug 2006 14:40:45 +0000 http://www.ourthoughts.ca/?p=207#comment-13874 […] Our Thoughts 7/30/04 DNA Lamanites and Book of Mormon 7/21/05 Southerton Promoting Book Again 2/18/06 Traditional Doctrine […]

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By: Ray https://www.ourthoughts.ca/2005/07/21/simon-southerton-promoting-book-again/comment-page-2/#comment-7023 Tue, 11 Apr 2006 18:55:24 +0000 http://www.ourthoughts.ca/?p=207#comment-7023 I Never said they removed archiological sites, or evidence of horses or anything like that. I said “and they did remove all remnants of any religion among the indians” Only of religion because they decided that it was all pagan so they intruduced them to their form of Christianity.

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